The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology |  | Author: Ray Kurzweil
Publisher: Penguin
Category: eBooks
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Rating:  156 reviews
Format: Kindle Book
Media: Kindle Edition
Pages: 672
Number Of Items: 1
Dewey Decimal Number: 153.9
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Product Description
For over three decades, Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he argued that computers would soon rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our creations.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 156
 Technophilic ecstacy September 22, 2005
Dr. Lee D. Carlson (Baltimore, Maryland USA)
84 out of 95 found this review helpful
The author is definitely one of the most inspiring of all researchers in the field of applied artificial intelligence. For those, such as this reviewer, who are working "in the trenches" of applied AI, his website is better than morning coffee. One does not have to agree with all the conclusions reached by the author in order to enjoy this book, but he does make a good case, albeit somewhat qualitative, for the occurrence, in this century, of what he and other futurists have called a `technological singularity.' He defines this as a period in the future where the rate of technological change will be so high that human life will be `irreversibly transformed.' There is much debate about this notion in the popular literature on AI, but in scientific and academic circles it has been greeted with mixed reviews. Such skepticism in the latter is expected and justified, for scientists and academic researchers need more quantitative justification than is usually provided by the enthusiasts of the singularity, which in this book the author calls "singularitarians." Even more interesting though is that the notion of rapid technological change seems to be ignored by the business community, who actually stand to gain (or lose) the most by it.
Since this book is aimed primarily at a wide audience, and not professional researchers, the author does not include detailed arguments or definitions for the notion of machine intelligence or a list of the hundreds of examples of intelligent machines that are now working in the field. Indeed, if one were to include a discussion of each of these examples, this book would swell to thousands of pages. There are machines right now used in business and industry that can manage, troubleshoot, and analyze networks, diagnose illnesses, compose music definitely worth listening to, choreograph dances, simulate human behavior in computer games, recommend and engage in financial transactions and bargaining, and many, many other tasks, a detailed list of which would, again, entail many thousands of pages.
There are various psychological issues that arise when discussing machine intelligence, which if believed might prohibit the acceptance of any kind of notion of a technological singularity. For example, it is one of the historical peculiarities of research in AI that advances in the field are later trivialized, i.e. when a problem in AI becomes solved it no longer holds any mystery and is then considered to be just another part of information processing. It is then no longer regarded as `intelligent' in any sense of the term. This phenomenon in AI research might be called the "Michie-McCorduck-Hofstader effect", named after the three individuals, Donald Michie, Barbara McCorduck, and Douglas Hofstader, who discussed it some detail in their writings. If one examines the history of AI, one finds many examples of this effect, such as in knowledge discovery from databases, the use of business rules in database technologies, and the use of ontologies for information systems development. One of the best examples of this effect though is the backgammon player TD-Gammon, a highly sophisticated example of machine intelligence but which is now considered to be merely part of the "programmer's toolbox." The Michie-McCorduck-Hofstader effect is important in discussing the notion of a technological singularity since if one does occur this effect would diminish one's ability to recognize it as being real. The author does not name this phenomenon as such in the book, but a reading of it definitely reveals that he is aware of the skepticism expressed by many towards any "advances" in machine intelligence.
Another one of these psychological issues regards the attitude of many philosophers on the notion of machine intelligence. In most cases they are extremely skeptical, and many AI researchers seem to feel the need to "refute" their opinions on the "impossibility" of intelligent machines. Unfortunately the author is one of these, and devotes space in the book to counter various philosophical arguments against AI. His arguments, although valid, are really a waste of time though. Such time would be better spent, both for the author and for AI researchers, in the actual development of intelligent machines. A moratorium should be declared among AI researchers on all philosophical speculation. Such musings are best left to professional philosophers, who have the time and the inclination to indulge themselves in them.
There are other issues that should have been given more attention in the book, such as more details on the energy requirements needed to bring about such a singularity. In addition, the author needs to sharpen just what he means by intelligence and move away from the Turing test/human brain benchmark that he uses in the book. There are many examples of intelligence in the natural world, and these can and have been emulated in many different types of machines. Interestingly, the fixation on human intelligence and the reverse engineering of the human brain (that is exemplified in this book) has inspired a few research teams to attempt to build a machine of "general intelligence", i.e. one that can think in many different domains, as clearly humans can. But it is still an open question whether this intelligence is "entangled" over these domains, i.e. whether or not a decrease in ability in one domain will affect the ability in another. From an evolutionary or efficiency standpoint it would seem that that domain specific intelligence is more optimal.
The notion of a technological singularity can be met with both exhilaration and a sense of foreboding, since (radical) change can be embraced with enthusiasm and with some feelings of anxiety. Even the author expresses this when he writes in the book that he is not "entirely comfortable" with all the consequences of a technological singularity. He has though made a fairly strong case for rapidly accelerating change. If the book concentrated more on the actual examples of intelligent machines and included the enormous amount of data from activities in applied AI that are now going on, an even stronger case could be made.
Agree or disagree, it's well worth a read October 2, 2005
Stephen C. Clark
32 out of 34 found this review helpful
I'm going to rate this book five stars, because at nearly 500 pages packed with important ideas (plus another hundred pages of notes) there is no question that this weighty book was well worth my $20.
As you might expect, Ray is at the top of his game when examining trends in computer science. He has many examples of "narrow" A.I. to share. More importantly, he believes that computer modeling of brain functioning will yield the algorithms we need in order to eventually achieve an artificial general intelligence. Indeed, cognitive science is exploding thanks to increases in computing and scanning power, and the brain will likely yield up many of its secrets in coming years. I find his predictions in this area quite believable.
I found some of his arguments regarding nanotechnology to be less convincing. In particular, his predictions for nanorobotics seem optimistic beyond all reason given the currently nascent state of this technology. Examples drawn from the current state of the art seem almost hopelessly far removed from the robust and exceedingly powerful technology he imagines within 25 years. On the other hand, if these surprising predictions are borne out it will be a powerful confirmation of his "law of accelerating returns". I guess I'll be reserving judgement until then.
There's alot more I could say (good and bad) about this important book, but the bottom line is that if you frequently find yourself wondering about the role of technology in the future of our species, "The Singularity is Near" will give you far more than your money's worth in food for thought.
Impressive May 19, 2006
Terminus
19 out of 21 found this review helpful
Ray Kurzweil is a well known inventor and entrepreneur, he founded and managed a string of successful companies, most of them related to the application of artificial intelligence.
One of Kurzweil's interests is predicting future technological trends. He analyses technological progress and builds mathematical models that can, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, anticipate the progress of different technologies. His track record of predicting things is better than you would expect.
The whole book revolves around the concept of "The Law of Accelerating Returns". This is an extrapolation of Moore's law. Moore's law states that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit is doubling every 18 months. The law of accelerating returns states that the rate of technological progress in general is increasing exponentially.
Another point is that these trends are VERY stable, they exhibit smooth acceleration, and thus, they can be used to accurately predict the future. He makes an analogy with a gas - while the trajectory of each individual particle inside a gas appears as essentially random, the behavior of the WHOLE SYSTEM is predictable. The same is true for technological progress, while individual events are apparently random, the whole system moves according to a stable pattern, which makes its future states predictable.
Most of the book centers on analyzing what the future has in store for us. According to Kurzweil, we are approaching "the knee of the curve" of technological progress. A point where progress will be so fast that unenhanced human intelligence will no longer be able to track it. This point is called "the singularity", meaning explosive technological growth. This, according to the book will happen around 2045. He predicts complete understanding of biology by 2020 (which will enable us to modify our bodies to live forever) self-replicating nanothech by 2025, strong AI by 2029, and eventually a fusion between human and machine intelligence, followed by a positive-feedback loop in which we continue to (exponentially) increase our intelligence until all matter in the universe becomes optimized for computation.
Do not dismiss the book simply because of its stranger than fiction conclusions. I found that the arguments behind his statements are VERY solid and I had great difficulty finding any fault with them. First READ the book, than judge for yourself.
Many people do not agree with him, but their main "reason" for not agreeing is basically that "this doesn't feel right". Ray explains that the main reason why it "doesn't feel right" is that people generally use linear thinking.
Suppose somebody asked you how the world will look like 10 years from now. How do you go about answering such a question? You'll probably try to remember how things were like 10 years ago and project a similar change into the future. That makes sense. Right? WRONG! The assumption underlying this reasoning is that progress is linear, that things will change AT THE SAME RATE in the next 10 years as they did in the last 10. Intuition is incapable of grasping exponential growth and thus fails miserably at predicting the future of technology.
The book gets quite technical and you find yourself reading the same paragraph 10 times over trying to understand some complex concept or trying figure out how some piece of exotic technology works, but, overall I'd say it can be read and understood 90% by people with basic technical skill. Ray's knowledge and understanding of numerous scientific fields, as well as his view of "the big picture" is impressive. He also has a very refreshing, clear and logical style of writing.
BOTTOM LINE:
The law of accelerating returns is the main theme of the book and after having read the arguments in favor of it I think it's undisputable. Some people place too much emphasis on Kurzweil's timing of events. It doesn't matter if strong AI is achieved by 2025 or 2045, the idea of exponential progress however is VERY important and the book is worth its money for that alone.
If you're still there, thanks :)
This book is definitely worth it. The perspective it offers, if properly understood, can and WILL change your outlook on life. Read it!
"Get Ready! The Beginning is Near!" October 20, 2005
Dwight GoldWinde (Shanghai, China)
47 out of 57 found this review helpful
"Repent! The End is Near!"
If I saw a person holding up this sign on a street corner, I might think, "Poor fellow. Where has his mind gone? Too bad there are crazy people like this in the world."
Yet, in Ray Kurzweil's book "Singularity," his message is even more far out, but more like,
"Get Ready! The Beginning is Near!"
And yet, with Kurzweil, my response is, "Okay, I understand so far. Tell me more." Then I see the data. Then I see his inexorable logic. I would bet a lot of money on his predictions. "Singularity" is the most startling book I have ever read in my life (and I have read a lot of great books).
Well before the year 2030 (within 25 years), if you are still alive, you will have the choice about whether or not you want to "live forever" (in THIS reality; not some "afterlife").
Well before 2030, there will be a computer that, by all measures, will be smarter than the smartest "regular human" (i.e. non-computer-enhanced human) on this earth. This computer will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which will then be able to invent an even smarter computer, which....
The changes in the next 14 years will be as much or more than the changes since 1955 (the last 50 years). And double again. And double again. And double again....we are fast approaching the asymptotic infinity of change and "progress"!
And there is basically nothing we can do about it. It will happen whether we like it or not (and most of us will end up liking it). We can "manage" it to some extent in order to provide a measure of protection against the end-of-the-world scenarios that could arise, either accidentally or intentionally, out of this run-away progress.
In his close-to-700-page manifesto, this is the essence of our future that Ray Kurzweil paints for us.
As an author myself ("Courage: the Choice that Makes the Difference-Your Key to a Thousand Doors"), I have a deep respect for what it takes to write a great book. The only other author that comes to mind whose breadth of knowledge and wisdom would compare with Kurzweil is philosopher Ken Wilber (although their writings are quite dissimilar). In reading Kurzweil I am continually amazed by the breadth and depth of his insights and conclusions.
There is one issue that he addresses from many perspectives (will computers become conscious? - his answer is "yes") that I cannot get my mind around. Even though his logic makes "sense" to me, I still can't quite accept it. However, that is not a big issue for me (as it might be for others), since, for all intents and purposes, I can totally accept that computers will be able to APPEAR as fully human (should they "choose" to do so).
I noticed that some of the other reviewers of "Singularity" have faulted Kurzweil for his optimism. Although I can see their point, I think that neither optimism nor pessimism is most appropriate here. Obviously we are facing an eventuality that holds the possibility of both the greatest promise as well as the greatest peril. Creativity, intelligence, and courage are our best tools at this unprecedented time in the history of our solar system.
I give "Singularity" five stars. It ranks that based solely upon the "wake up call" it is for humanity.
[...]
Insightful December 18, 2006
Mark Twain (Sydney, Australia)
21 out of 24 found this review helpful
I think some of the reviewers are missing the point of this book. Kurzweil is not an optimist - and I don't even think he would consider himself a 'proponent' of GNR, specific IT advances, or the changes he is predicting. The whole point is that these advances are part of our evolution as a species - any resistance by governments, ethicists, or individuals are automatically calcuated into his predictions. He's looking at the net effect of progress (spurned primarily through economics and economic darwinism) and not by renegade or revolutionary scientists or technologists.
The advances he is predicting are based on the worldview that these advances are inevitable - just as our biological evolution was inevitable (especially with hindsight) - and, all the technological advances (especially in the past 100 years) are the proof that the speed of developing and adopting technologies into society is ever increasing, to a point where it is unstoppable and ubiquitous.
Take the cell phone example - some may resist the adoption of cell phones - saying that they invade their privacy, and overcomplicate their lives to a point that is unacceptable to them. This is a valid view, and individuals have the option to choose not to adopt this technology. But, the fact of the matter is that this technology has and is changing the world - the overwhelming majority of the world population does not object to cell phone use, and in fact many are being empowered by them (look at subscription rates in China and India over the past 6 months - something in the millions of new subscribers every month).
This technology changes society - it changes human interrelationships - and it changes human-technology relationships. Having a cellphone brings us one step closer to being 'always-on' - always connected. It comes closer to being integrated into our biology (you can sleep with a cellphone - carry it where-ever you go - this level of connectivity previously would have required being physically tethered to a land-line)
There is little (if any) judgement in Kurzweil's conclusions. They are logically grounded (which is why he provides so many counter arguments, and supporting data). They are based specifically on the worldview that our evolution is now in our hands, and much of what we do with it can be predicted by how we've developed and adopted technologies in the past - or how biological evolution occurred. He admits to a large unknown - the fact that we don't know what the resulting convergence of technology and biology will look, or feel like. The fact that this will happen does not allow us to see or even comprehend what this will mean for us.
My personal feeling is that this is the most worriesome part - the fact that the change may be so radical, that some people (or even class of people) may not even survive the transition - or it could in fact create multiple classes of humans (humans & proto-humans). But, again, there is no judgement in this - if that is our fate, it will be. Just as wars in the past have determined the current global power-structure - there will likely be conflict involved in the process. I hope that some of these advances and their inherent connected nature will preclude or somehow prevent the conflict from being a violent one - but, you have to imagine it is a possibility.
There is a lot of evidence to support the likelihood of Kurzweil's near-term worldview. If his predictions about the speed of change are correct, if you are one of the few capable of internalizing and understanding the implications, I believe you will be at an advantage in life and business. If you understand and believe the potential of this, but close your eyes to it because you don't like the implications, you will be one of the worst off when it does happen. And, the best situation is if you understand the implications, and are in a position to direct them when they start to occur, you can help to make sure that they do so in the most equitable and positive fashion possible.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 156
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